OPERATIONAL ASSESSMENT  

The situation has continued to be volatile in the North and in the East. Fighting has continued at the same rate including air strikes and clashes at sea. The situation is not expected to improve in the coming week. Some increased tension could also be expected due to LTTE Hero’s Week and much may depend on Mr. Prabakaran’s annual speech (Monday).

 

In Jaffna extensive shelling and artillery firing was heard in the last week. SLMM observations, monitoring, follow ups and liaising with the Security Forces (SF) suggest that the level of tension is increasing. The security forces are on full alert, especially because of Heroes’ day. SF is expecting clashes to take place at the FDL and infiltration by the LTTE from the sea is also anticipated. Assaults on SF using claymore and hand grenades are happening.

 

Some of the victims of the recent abductions and assassination in Jaffna are children. In the area of Kondavil, a 15 year old boy was abducted and brutally murdered. SLMM learned that 4 children are in the protective custody in Jaffna prison due to fear for their lives (related to the Kondavil case). SLMM has visited the prison and interviewed the youngsters.  

 

When it comes to the humanitarian situation in Jaffna, it is deteriorating due to the scarcity of items such as food and fuel. Foreign diplomats and representatives have visited Jaffna last week. They stopped by the SLMM office for a situation update and briefing. Prior to that, they have met with SF, GA and representatives of the civil society. During their stay, they witnessed intensive shelling activities.

 

Vavuniya has been tense with several assassinations and attacks by the LTTE on SF servicemen. Four witnesses to the Thandikulam massacre on 181106 (Claymore explosion which led to the killings of students in a near by Agricultural School) have been exposed to threats not to testify before court.

 

The Ministry of Defence has not allowed Heroes Days commemorations to take place at Madre cemetery.

 

Mannar is calm, but tension is increasing in some areas due to air strikes and shelling.

 

In Vanni the humanitarian situation is deteriorating and in particular in Mullativu. Only 30.000 out of 110.000 IDPs have received some dry food rations. Another 80.000 persons are living in grave poverty without livelihood possibilities due to Sri Lanka Navy attacks on fishermen and the non-availability of fuel for paddy field cultivation. Only 5 – 10 % of agricultural production areas are in use compared with last year. Malnutrition is already a fact, and from February/March one can expect extensive malnutrition. There is extensive l ack of essential medicines, medical equipment and fuel.

 

Trincomalee town remains calm. The police, in conjunction with other security forces has tightened security and put more men on each checkpoint. The neighbourhood of Pallayuttur in Trincomalee town has also seen some tension in the recent days with 4 killings in the week and daily security searches. The police claim that there is some LTTE presence in that neighbourhood.

 

The fighting in the south, near Mavil Aru and Vakharai is still ongoing with an unpredictable ebb and flow.   The GA of Trincomalee area is convinced that this is the right time to send the Tamil IDPs back to their area in Kiliveddy refugee camp and will do so at the earliest opportunity.

 

In Batticaloa the situation is more or less the same as it was assessed last week.   SLMM has some reports that the Karuna activity in Valaichenai area is still on the increase. SLMM has received complaints were both Karuna and the LTTE are under suspicion for assassinations and abductions. Officially the SF have indicated that GOSL will allow a major convoy, organized by ICRC and the WFP, to enter Vakharai in the beginning of this coming week.   The General Officer in Command and the ICRC are interested in SLMM assistance in monitoring the convoy.   Whether this convoy will be sent in or not may have a significant impact on the tension in the area the coming days.   Apart from this, there is no indication other than that the conflict will continue to escalate. GOSL is still expecting a major influx of IDPs from Vakharai.

 

In Ampara there have been a higher number of incidents, connected to skirmishes in areas where both parties claim they are in control.  

 

Air attacks have intensified in Vanni and in Kilinochchi area during the week mainly on LTTE military installations. Additionally, shelling up North has been heavier than the recent weeks, but still far from what it was like in September and early October.

 

Extensive preparations took place during the week for the Hero’s Week.

 

There is a general expectation among the LTTE leadership that the situation will become more tense in the coming weeks. It has been learned that the public in general feels frightened to attend the celebrations due to fear of air strikes.