OPERATIONAL ASSESSMENT
Tension is high in many districts, with the past week bringing international attention to the escalation in the conflict, with three incidents dominating this week’s headlines, namely the shelling of internally displaced persons in camps in the east, the unprovoked shelling of HOM´s inspection party to the North and the assassination of a high profile TNA Member of Parliament.

 

Tension is high in Jaffna Peninsula. This week there was extensive shelling towards the LTTE FDL and towards K Point (the peninsula where Poonaryn is situated), including the use of MBRL on Wednesday. Newspapers known to be controlled by or giving support to the LTTE are receiving threats from the local military commander in Jaffna Town, warning against publishing criticism of the Security Forces. It is, however, observed that EPDP members are getting protection from the SLA/police when distributing their paper.

 

There have been 8 registered assaults on the SLA which is an increase from the previous week. One assault occurred in a busy road in Jaffna, using students as human shields. Last week, there were 11 targeted assassinations as well as 5 abductions, including one child. It is unsure whether this reflects the real number of abducted. People are generally afraid to approach SLMM with complaints. Most of the complaints are now via Security Forces and/or Police. The security situation for the civilian population is very bad, and the continuous closure of A9, is making the security situation even worse.

 

Regarding livelihood, food and other necessities the situation is difficult. The supply received from the government does not cover the needs of the population. Economic activities are down. The supply route by sea will, if the bad weather continues, be very difficult to use, as they have to unload the ships off the coast. The attack on a convoy escorting a passenger ship will most probably influence both the flow of people and goods in and out of the Peninsula.

 

The current tension in Vavuniya is mostly caused by actions of the Security Forces and armed political groups, often in cooperation. LTTE activities are generally not directed against civilians, while activities undertaken by the Security Forces or armed political groups often are. LTTE has had a low visible activity level, with only one attack at a home guard post. Abductions/assassinations occur on a regular basis in Mannar. The release by the LTTE of the stranded Jaffna Tamils at Madhu was a positive step.

 

Targeted killings are still being conducted in Trincomalee Town. It seems to follow the pattern that after every offensive action towards the GOSL forces, whether it be a claymore attack or sea attack, there is an increase of killings immediately afterwards.  The victims are mostly young men in their twenties. A sea tiger attack on the Sri Lankan Navy occurred outside Nilaveli but further information is lacking from the navy. Next week is reported to be characterized by hartals in Trincomalee town. Given that Karuna Group is not in favour of these hartals, it can be expected that localized scenes of violence can erupt (assaults, arson etc.).

 

The week in Ampara started with abduction of 5 wives of important LTTE members on Saturday morning in Thirukkovil. This was done by Karuna cadres. SLMM worked on this case constantly until the wives were released on Tuesday.  Tension subsided after the release.

 

Fewer incidents were recorded in Batticaloa than the previous week. SLMM received information about 7 killings in the district and 11 abductions, thereof 7 children. On top of that SLMM has heard indications from reliable sources that LTTE has been abducting adults and children in their controlled area.

 

Based on observations throughout the week SLMM saw a pattern in the GOSL activity in Vakharai area.  It would appear that a part of the strategy is to deprive the civilians’ access to basic commodities as water, food and medical care. When GOSL then launches attacks at the camps in the north it is calculated that people will be exhausted, eventually panic and rush towards the south and through the LTTE cp into GOSL controlled area.  After the Kathriaveli attack this week SLMM observed more or less all the IDPs, around 30 000, moving with their belongings along the roads.  Some hundred of them managed to reach one of the southernmost LTTE check point and were physically stopped by cadres from moving further south. While discussing with 23 Div GOC the need for getting access to the area, he has reiterated that SLMM rather should concentrate on convincing the civilians to come out of Vakharai.

 

Wednesday, Thursday and Friday saw some serious incidents taking place in Vanni including a shelling attack from GOSL side over to Pooneryn where Head of SLMM was on an inspection trip, after being asked by SCOPP to convey to the LTTE that they wanted the Poonaryn jety to be opened for ferry services for people transport across the lagoon from Jaffna. The shelling was completely unprovoked although the SLA claims the contrary.

 

The assassination of Nadarajah Raviraj has raised tension among the population in Vanni and a heavy sea battle that took place outside Nagarkovil has caused a further sense of escalation. Both parties seem to have prepared themselves for some military action in the north: Nagarkovil, Mukamalai and Pallali areas.